четверг, 13 ноября 2014 г.

Improved lithium ion, solid state lithium ion and lithium Sulphur batteries.

 Dr. Martin Winterkorn, Chairman of the Board of Management of Volkswagen discussed the challenges of energy density, cost, reliability and lifespan for batteries enabling longer range electric mobility.

Volkswagen spends roughly 13 billion Dollars on research and development each year.

Winterkorn sees increasing the specific energy of lithium-ion cells to as much as 380 Wh/l will reduce driving range drawbacks. Lithium ion with a higher nickel content will get to even high energy density.

He sees great potential with solid-state batteries possibly boosting the range to as much as 700 kilometers (1,000 Wh/l).

Solid state lithium ion batteries replace the organic liquid electrolyte with a nonflammable and more reliable inorganic solid electrolyte (SE). This can provide higher energy density and simplify the battery design and improves safety and durability of the system.

Another matter is cost:
Lowering the price of battery cells to 100 euros ($120) per kilowatt hour would significantly increase the market potential of electric vehicles.

Toyota targets batteries better than gasoline which they call the Sakichi battery

Toyota established a research division to work on “revolutionary batteries.” At that time, the company talked about a “Sakichi battery,” named after Sakichi Toyoda, the inventor of Japan’s first power loom. He is sometimes referred to as the father of the Japanese industrial revolution. In 1925, Sakichi reportedly set oblamlut a (yet-to-be-claimed) prize of 1 million yen for the invention of a storage battery that would produce more energy than gasoline. Toyota’s goal is to make the Sakichi battery very durable and very quick to charge.





Toyota sees potential for the Magnesium Sulfur battery

Unlike lithium ions, which can carry only one electrical charge each, doubly charged magnesium ions shuttle two at a time — instantly multiplying the electrical energy that can be released for the same volume. Magnesium comes with its own challenge, however: whereas lithium zips through electrolytes and electrodes, magnesium with its two charges moves as if through treacle.



The US Department of Energy had 2011 estimates of different battery technology.



Lithium–sulphur (Li–S) technology, which uses extremely cheap materials and in theory can pack in five times more energy by weight than Li-ion (in practice, researchers suspect, it will probably be only twice as much).

One of Li–S's main advantages, says chemical engineer Elton Cairns, is that it gets rid of the “dead weight” in a Li-ion battery. Inside a typical Li-ion cell, space is taken up by a layered graphite electrode that does little more than host lithium ions. These ions flow through a charge-carrying liquid electrolyte into a layered metal oxide electrode. As with all batteries, current is generated because electrons must flow around an outside circuit to balance the charges. To recharge the battery, a voltage is applied to reverse the electron flow, which also drives the lithium ions back.




In a Li–S battery, the graphite is replaced by a sliver of pure lithium metal that does double duty as both the electrode and the supplier of lithium ions: it shrinks as the battery runs, and reforms when the battery is recharged. And the metal oxide is replaced by cheaper, lighter sulphur that can really pack the lithium in: each sulphur atom bonds to two lithium atoms, whereas it takes more than one metal atom to bond to just one lithium. All of that creates a distinct weight and cost advantage for Li–S technology.

Lower cost batteries

Battery packs for electric cars cost more than $500 per kWh. “What's holding back the mass acceptance of electric cars is really the price rather than the energy density,” he says. So IBM nanoscience Winfried Wilcke now favours a cheaper breathing battery based on sodium. Theory predicts that sodium–oxygen (Na–O) batteries could provide only half the energy density of Li–O, but that is still five times better than Li-ion batteries. And sodium is cheaper than lithium, so Na–O might, Wilcke hopes, get closer to the $100 per kWh goal that the JCESR and others have set for affordability.

SOURCES: Volkswagen, Toyota, Nature Journal
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Tesla Battery Report Predictions



Tesla Gigafactory

* It represents a huge risk and a tremendous amount of cash investment
* It depends largely on Panasonic’s willingness to invest
* If 35 GWh are indeed installed and utilized, pack pricing for the 2025 time scale could be as low as $167/kWh, $8,400 for a 50-kWh battery and $11,700 for a 70-kWh pack
* Battery cost per kWh will go up slightly in 2017 due to high depreciation charges, but larger capacity per cell will neutralize the increase by 2018
* Tesla’s 35-GWh plant will be about 10X larger than any existing plant

* Pack cost much below $200/kWh is unlikely before 2020, which brings the cost of the proposed 70-kWh pack for a 240-mile D class EV to $14,000 (or higher). Tesla could offer an entry-level version with 45-50kWh (at $9K to $10K per pack) but such a vehicle would not quite attain 200 miles per charge in most real-life driving conditions

In 2025, they could get to a cost of $117 per kWh.



* Panasonic will increase capacity in Japan from 4 GWh today to 7 GWh by 2016
* Or, alternatively, Tesla will fill the gap with cells from Samsung or LG Chem of Korea
* Tesla will build the infrastructure for a 35-GWh plant but will furbish it and install production lines in stages. The first stage on the order of 7 GWh will be completed by the end of 2016
* The gigafactory will expand in several stages in increments of 7 GWh every two years to reach 35 GWh in 2025


The price of the 2017 new model 3 (prior to government incentives) will be in the range of $45-75K;

If sales in China are significant, the total sales number for Tesla may exceed 200,000 by 2020 but Tesla will have to shift some production to China. The expectation is for Tesla sales to be 60,000 in 2015.

Lux Research analysis of the Gigafactory is similar

Lux Research projects sales of "only" 240,000 Tesla cars in 2020, leading to razor-thin margins to Panasonic and 57% overcapacity. Tesla is targeting 500,000 cars.

The Gigafactory will only reduce the Tesla Model 3’s cost by $2,800.

Cost-cutting is the name of the game, but the Gigafactory does not do enough. Battery prices need to fall dramatically if plug-in cars hope to break beyond their current niche. The OEMs backing the U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium are targeting $125/kWh by 2020 – more than four times lower than $520/kWh, the price Ford paid for its Focus EV battery packs. Currently, Tesla has the lowest cost – about $274/kWh, according to Lux Research analysis. Tesla founder Elon Musk aims to cut cost by 30%, on the strength of scale, location and technology, lowering the price to $196/kWh with the Gigafactory.

Panasonic faces risks. The Gigafactory might seem like a great win for Panasonic, ahead of rivals such as Samsung SDI, LG Chem, and NEC. But in reality the Japanese company faces high risks. In the optimistic scenario of Tesla attaining its targeted half a million EVs, Panasonic could rake in more than $15 billion between 2017 and 2020. But at the more likely 240,000 EVs, as estimated by Lux Research, Panasonic would take in only $7 billion on its likely investment of $1.4 billion, with questionable margins.

Gigafactory will lead to huge overcapacity. The Gigafactory, proposed to be built at a cost of $5 billion, is designed to make 35 GWh Li-ion cells for half a million EVs. But in the likely event of much lower sales of 240,000, overcapacity will be to the extent of 20 GWh. This 57% overcapacity is unlikely to be filled either by rival carmakers or Tesla’s own plans to sell some stationary battery packs to developers like SolarCity for residential photovoltaic integration and other uses.

Solarcity currently has over 110,000 customers (end of Q1 2014) and they are targeting 1 million customers by 2018 SolarCity 17,664 new customers connected to the sun and 82 MW deployed in the first three months of 2014. The total number of SolarCitycustomers by the end of March exceeded 110,000. By the end of 2014 they should have about 200,000.

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